Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Artilheiros vs Chiba — Primeira Divisão 2026

Artilheiros
Artilheiros
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Chiba
Chiba
3/1/2026Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Artilheiros11%
×Draw12%
Chiba77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Artilheiros
1.59
Chiba
4.06

Chiba creates 155% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 16 away

creates per match

Artilheiros
1.38
Chiba
2.50

allows per match

Artilheiros
5.63
Chiba
1.81

finishing

Artilheiros+0.00on par
Chiba+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Artilheiros ↓

Chiba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–23%
0–34%
0–45%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–37%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
62%38%

Double chance

Artilheiros or draw
23%
Artilheiros or Chiba
88%
Draw or Chiba
89%

Winning margin

Artilheiros wins by 2+
4%
Chiba wins by 2+
61%

Team goals

Artilheiros 1+ goals
80%
Artilheiros 2+ goals
47%
Artilheiros 3+ goals
21%
Chiba 1+ goals
98%
Chiba 2+ goals
90%
Chiba 3+ goals
74%

Draw no bet

Artilheiros (draw refunded)
12%
Chiba (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Artilheiros at home — creates 1.38, concedes 5.63 · 8 matches

Chiba away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Artilheiros attack 1.38 + Chiba defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.59

Chiba attack 2.50 + Artilheiros defence 5.63 → ÷2 → 4.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Artilheiros scores more
11%
level
12%
Chiba scores more
77%

Chiba at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Chiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Divisão: Artilheiros 1–4 Chiba

Chiba beat Artilheiros 4-1 in Primeira Divisão on March 1, 2026.