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Chiangmai FC vs Sukhothai FC — League Cup 2021

Chiangmai FC
Chiangmai FC
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sukhothai FC
Sukhothai FC
11/16/2022League CupLeague Cup · 1st RoundChiangmai Municipality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Chiangmai FC31%
×Draw31%
Sukhothai FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chiangmai FC
0.94
Sukhothai FC
1.06

Sukhothai FC creates 13% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Chiangmai FC
0.67
Sukhothai FC
0.80

allows per match

Chiangmai FC
1.33
Sukhothai FC
1.20

finishing

Chiangmai FC+0.00on par
Sukhothai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiangmai FC ↓

Sukhothai FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Chiangmai FC or draw
62%
Chiangmai FC or Sukhothai FC
69%
Draw or Sukhothai FC
69%

Winning margin

Chiangmai FC wins by 2+
11%
Sukhothai FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Chiangmai FC 1+ goals
61%
Chiangmai FC 2+ goals
24%
Chiangmai FC 3+ goals
7%
Sukhothai FC 1+ goals
65%
Sukhothai FC 2+ goals
29%
Sukhothai FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chiangmai FC (draw refunded)
45%
Sukhothai FC (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiangmai FC at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Sukhothai FC away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiangmai FC attack 0.67 + Sukhothai FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.94

Sukhothai FC attack 0.80 + Chiangmai FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chiangmai FC scores more
31%
level
31%
Sukhothai FC scores more
38%

Sukhothai FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sukhothai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chiangmai FC vs Sukhothai FC

Chiangmai FC and Sukhothai FC drew 0-0 in League Cup on November 16, 2022.

The match was played at Chiangmai Municipality Stadium in Chiang Mai.