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Chiangmai FC vs Sukhothai FC — Thai League 2 2018

Chiangmai FC
Chiangmai FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Sukhothai FC
Sukhothai FC
2/4/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 22700th Anniversary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chiangmai FC42%
×Draw24%
Sukhothai FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chiangmai FC
1.63
Sukhothai FC
1.47

Chiangmai FC creates 11% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 17 away

creates per match

Chiangmai FC
1.78
Sukhothai FC
1.82

allows per match

Chiangmai FC
1.12
Sukhothai FC
1.47

finishing

Chiangmai FC+0.00on par
Sukhothai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiangmai FC ↓

Sukhothai FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Chiangmai FC or draw
65%
Chiangmai FC or Sukhothai FC
76%
Draw or Sukhothai FC
58%

Winning margin

Chiangmai FC wins by 2+
21%
Sukhothai FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Chiangmai FC 1+ goals
80%
Chiangmai FC 2+ goals
48%
Chiangmai FC 3+ goals
22%
Sukhothai FC 1+ goals
77%
Sukhothai FC 2+ goals
43%
Sukhothai FC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Chiangmai FC (draw refunded)
55%
Sukhothai FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiangmai FC at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.12 · 82 matches

Sukhothai FC away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiangmai FC attack 1.78 + Sukhothai FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.63

Sukhothai FC attack 1.82 + Chiangmai FC defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chiangmai FC scores more
42%
level
24%
Sukhothai FC scores more
35%

Chiangmai FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chiangmai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chiangmai FC vs Sukhothai FC

Sukhothai FC beat Chiangmai FC 2-1 in Thai League 2 on February 4, 2022.

The match was played at 700th Anniversary Stadium in Chiang Mai.