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Chesterfield vs Tranmere — League Two 2018

Chesterfield
Chesterfield
Preview
14:00
Tranmere
Tranmere
10/3/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 9SMH Group Stadium
41%
Chesterfield
model favours
41%26%34%

Chesterfield score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Chesterfield41%
×Draw26%
Tranmere34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chesterfield
1.42
Tranmere
1.27

Chesterfield creates 12% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Chesterfield
1.45
Tranmere
1.18

allows per match

Chesterfield
1.37
Tranmere
1.39

finishing

Chesterfield-0.05on par
Tranmere-0.18scores less

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chesterfield ↓

Tranmere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Chesterfield or draw
66%
Chesterfield or Tranmere
74%
Draw or Tranmere
59%

Winning margin

Chesterfield wins by 2+
19%
Tranmere wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Chesterfield 1+ goals
76%
Chesterfield 2+ goals
41%
Chesterfield 3+ goals
17%
Tranmere 1+ goals
72%
Tranmere 2+ goals
36%
Tranmere 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Chesterfield (draw refunded)
55%
Tranmere (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chesterfield at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.37 · 10 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.39 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chesterfield attack 1.45 + Tranmere defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.42

Tranmere attack 1.18 + Chesterfield defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Chesterfield scores more
41%
level
26%
Tranmere scores more
34%

Chesterfield at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Chesterfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Chesterfield sit 7, Tranmere 21 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Chesterfield
Possession-dominant
Tranmere
Balanced
60%PossessionBiggest gap50%
78%Pass accuracy67%
11.9Shots12.1
1.32xG1.13
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ChesterfieldTranmere

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

1
Chesterfield
2
Draws
1
Tranmere
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 50%
1–11–10–43–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Chesterfield
LDDLW
Tranmere
WDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Chesterfield host Tranmere

October 3, 2026: Chesterfield take on Tranmere in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Chesterfield host Tranmere at SMH Group Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.