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Chesterfield vs Swindon Town — League Two 2018

Chesterfield
Chesterfield
Preview
14:00
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
5/1/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 45SMH Group Stadium
Big match
42%
Chesterfield
model favours
42%25%33%

Swindon Town score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Chesterfield42%
×Draw25%
Swindon Town33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chesterfield
1.57
Swindon Town
1.36

Chesterfield creates 15% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

creates per match

Chesterfield
1.69
Swindon Town
1.34

allows per match

Chesterfield
1.38
Swindon Town
1.46

finishing

Chesterfield-0.19scores less
Swindon Town-0.01on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chesterfield ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Chesterfield or draw
67%
Chesterfield or Swindon Town
75%
Draw or Swindon Town
58%

Winning margin

Chesterfield wins by 2+
21%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Chesterfield 1+ goals
79%
Chesterfield 2+ goals
46%
Chesterfield 3+ goals
21%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
74%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
39%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Chesterfield (draw refunded)
56%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chesterfield at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.38 · 12 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.46 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chesterfield attack 1.69 + Swindon Town defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.57

Swindon Town attack 1.34 + Chesterfield defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chesterfield scores more
42%
level
25%
Swindon Town scores more
33%

Chesterfield at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chesterfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Chesterfield score first in only 18% of matches
  • Swindon Town have scored in 11 games running
  • 73% of Swindon Town’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Chesterfield
Possession-dominant
Swindon Town
Balanced
60%PossessionBiggest gap54%
78%Pass accuracy72%
12.3Shots12.6
1.50xG1.50
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ChesterfieldSwindon Town

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Chesterfield
2
Draws
4
Swindon Town
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 60%
2–11–20–11–12–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Chesterfield
LDDLW
Town
LLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chesterfield face Swindon Town (League Two)

League Two returns with Chesterfield hosting Swindon Town. Match starts May 1, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Chesterfield host Swindon Town at SMH Group Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.