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Chesterfield vs Oldham — League Two 2024

Chesterfield
Chesterfield
Preview
15:00
Oldham
Oldham
2/20/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 32SMH Group Stadium
Big match
45%
Chesterfield
model favours
45%26%29%

Chesterfield score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Chesterfield45%
×Draw26%
Oldham29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chesterfield
1.50
Oldham
1.15

Chesterfield creates 30% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 35 away

creates per match

Chesterfield
1.65
Oldham
1.20

allows per match

Chesterfield
1.10
Oldham
1.34

finishing

Chesterfield+0.00on par
Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chesterfield ↓

Oldham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Chesterfield or draw
71%
Chesterfield or Oldham
74%
Draw or Oldham
55%

Winning margin

Chesterfield wins by 2+
22%
Oldham wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chesterfield 1+ goals
78%
Chesterfield 2+ goals
44%
Chesterfield 3+ goals
19%
Oldham 1+ goals
68%
Oldham 2+ goals
32%
Oldham 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chesterfield (draw refunded)
61%
Oldham (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chesterfield at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.10 · 49 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chesterfield attack 1.65 + Oldham defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.50

Oldham attack 1.20 + Chesterfield defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chesterfield scores more
45%
level
26%
Oldham scores more
29%

Chesterfield at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chesterfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Style contrast — Chesterfield play Possession-dominant, Oldham Defensively solid
  • Oldham outscore their xG (1.6 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Chesterfield
Possession-dominant
Oldham
Defensively solid
61%Possession48%
81%Pass accuracyBiggest gap63%
11.4Shots11.7
1.26xG1.28
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ChesterfieldOldham

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

0
Chesterfield
3
Draws
2
Oldham
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 60%
0–31–12–21–10–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Chesterfield
LDDLW
Oldham
WLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chesterfield face Oldham (League Two)

League Two returns with Chesterfield hosting Oldham. Match starts February 20, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Chesterfield host Oldham at SMH Group Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.