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Chesterfield vs Fleetwood Town — League Two 2018

Chesterfield
Chesterfield
Preview
14:00
Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
8/15/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 1SMH Group Stadium
Big match
46%
Chesterfield
model favours
46%25%30%

Chesterfield score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Chesterfield46%
×Draw25%
Fleetwood Town30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chesterfield
1.61
Fleetwood Town
1.26

Chesterfield creates 28% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Chesterfield
1.69
Fleetwood Town
1.15

allows per match

Chesterfield
1.38
Fleetwood Town
1.54

finishing

Chesterfield-0.19scores less
Fleetwood Town-0.07on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chesterfield ↓

Fleetwood Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Chesterfield or draw
70%
Chesterfield or Fleetwood Town
75%
Draw or Fleetwood Town
54%

Winning margin

Chesterfield wins by 2+
23%
Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chesterfield 1+ goals
80%
Chesterfield 2+ goals
48%
Chesterfield 3+ goals
22%
Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
72%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
36%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Chesterfield (draw refunded)
60%
Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chesterfield at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.38 · 12 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chesterfield attack 1.69 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.61

Fleetwood Town attack 1.15 + Chesterfield defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chesterfield scores more
46%
level
25%
Fleetwood Town scores more
30%

Chesterfield at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chesterfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Fleetwood Town win just 19% against the top half (vs 48% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Chesterfield
Possession-dominant
Fleetwood Town
Balanced
60%PossessionBiggest gap48%
78%Pass accuracy67%
12.3Shots12.0
1.50xG1.32
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ChesterfieldFleetwood Town

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Chesterfield
2
Draws
2
Fleetwood Town
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 40%
1–11–13–00–20–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Chesterfield
LDDLW
Town
WWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Chesterfield host Fleetwood Town

August 15, 2026: Chesterfield take on Fleetwood Town in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Chesterfield host Fleetwood Town at SMH Group Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.