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Chesterfield vs Crewe — League Two 2018

Chesterfield
Chesterfield
Preview
14:00
Crewe
Crewe
10/24/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 13SMH Group Stadium
Big match
41%
Chesterfield
model favours
41%25%33%

Chesterfield score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Chesterfield41%
×Draw25%
Crewe33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chesterfield
1.50
Crewe
1.32

Chesterfield creates 14% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

Chesterfield
1.57
Crewe
1.30

allows per match

Chesterfield
1.34
Crewe
1.44

finishing

Chesterfield-0.21scores less
Crewe-0.05on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chesterfield ↓

Crewe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Chesterfield or draw
67%
Chesterfield or Crewe
75%
Draw or Crewe
59%

Winning margin

Chesterfield wins by 2+
20%
Crewe wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Chesterfield 1+ goals
78%
Chesterfield 2+ goals
44%
Chesterfield 3+ goals
19%
Crewe 1+ goals
73%
Crewe 2+ goals
38%
Crewe 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Chesterfield (draw refunded)
55%
Crewe (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chesterfield at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.34 · 11 matches

Crewe away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chesterfield attack 1.57 + Crewe defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.50

Crewe attack 1.30 + Chesterfield defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Chesterfield scores more
41%
level
25%
Crewe scores more
33%

Chesterfield at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Chesterfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Crewe score first in only 19% of matches
  • 47% of Crewe’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Chesterfield
Possession-dominant
Crewe
Balanced
60%PossessionBiggest gap50%
78%Pass accuracy70%
12.2Shots11.2
1.38xG1.44
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ChesterfieldCrewe

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Chesterfield
1
Draws
2
Crewe
Avg goals: 5BTTS: 60%
2–03–31–71–35–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Chesterfield
LDDLW
Crewe
WDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chesterfield face Crewe (League Two)

League Two returns with Chesterfield hosting Crewe. Match starts October 24, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Chesterfield host Crewe at SMH Group Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.