Chesterfield 1–1 Colchester: Result & Stats

Chesterfield

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Colchester

W. Grigg 64'

J. Payne 6'

10/22/2024

League Two · Round 13SMH Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Chesterfield49%

×Draw24%

Colchester28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChesterfieldExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.23

Chesterfield

1.71

Colchester

1.23

Chesterfield creates 39% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

1.57

creates per match

1.11

1.34

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Chesterfield

1.57

Colchester

1.11

allows per match

Chesterfield

1.34

Colchester

1.85

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Chesterfield-0.21scores less

Colchester+0.20scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chesterfield ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Chesterfield or draw

72%

Chesterfield or Colchester

76%

Draw or Colchester

51%

Winning margin

Chesterfield wins by 2+

26%

Colchester wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Chesterfield 1+ goals

82%

Chesterfield 2+ goals

51%

Chesterfield 3+ goals

24%

Colchester 1+ goals

71%

Colchester 2+ goals

35%

Colchester 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Chesterfield (draw refunded)

64%

Colchester (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chesterfield at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.34 · 11 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chesterfield attack 1.57 + Colchester defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.71

Colchester attack 1.11 + Chesterfield defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Chesterfield scores more

49%

level

24%

Colchester scores more

28%

Chesterfield at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Chesterfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

D. Oldaker

Chesterfield · M

8.7

Match Events

6'

J. Payne↳ O. Thorn

11'

Ben Goodliffe

64'

W. Grigg↳ D. Oldaker

66'

L. Mandeville← V. Campbell

67'

A. Dobra← J. Metcalfe

67'

R. Colclough← J. Berry-McNally

75'

Jack Payne

76'

H. Anderson← J. Gordon

79'

L. Taylor← J. McDonnell

80'

P. Madden← W. Grigg

80'

M. Egbo← O. Thorn

88'

M. Jacobs← D. Markanday

90+6'

Armando Dobra

90+6'

Darren Oldaker

90+6'

Lyle Taylor

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChesterfieldColchester

Overview

76%Possession24%

24Total Shots4

17Corners0

12Fouls15

Shots

24Total Shots4

8On Target1

10Off Target2

6Blocked1

13Inside Box3

11Outside Box1

Passing

76%Possession24%

693Total Passes219

617Accurate Passes134

89%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

0Saves8

Discipline

12Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1