Chesterfield 0–0 Colchester: Result & Stats

Chesterfield

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Colchester

12/30/2017

League Two · Round 25Proact Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Chesterfield48%

×Draw24%

Colchester28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChesterfieldExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.29

Chesterfield

1.75

Colchester

1.29

Chesterfield creates 36% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

1.69

creates per match

1.21

1.38

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Chesterfield

1.69

Colchester

1.21

allows per match

Chesterfield

1.38

Colchester

1.81

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Chesterfield-0.19scores less

Colchester+0.15scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chesterfield ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Chesterfield or draw

72%

Chesterfield or Colchester

76%

Draw or Colchester

52%

Winning margin

Chesterfield wins by 2+

26%

Colchester wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Chesterfield 1+ goals

83%

Chesterfield 2+ goals

52%

Chesterfield 3+ goals

25%

Colchester 1+ goals

72%

Colchester 2+ goals

37%

Colchester 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Chesterfield (draw refunded)

63%

Colchester (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chesterfield at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.38 · 12 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.81 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chesterfield attack 1.69 + Colchester defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.75

Colchester attack 1.21 + Chesterfield defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chesterfield scores more

48%

level

24%

Colchester scores more

28%

Chesterfield at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Chesterfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

Sam Hird

74'

S. Murray← S. Szmodics

83'

K. Guthrie← M. Mandron

86'

Kurtis Guthrie

88'

Louis Reed

90'

Jerome Binnom-Williams

Chesterfield

Colchester

1

2

18

6

22

17

7

4

10

▼

Szmodics

14

Comley

19

▼

1

4

5

24

3

28

17

26

25

15

9

Manager: J. Lester

Chesterfield substitutes

30Parkin29German19Girolamo31Ofoegbu10O'Grady7Mitchell16Wakefield

Manager: J. McGreal

74'▲S. Murray←▼S. Szmodics

83'▲K. Guthrie←▼M. Mandron

Colchester substitutes

16Murray28Guthrie21Hanlan24Slater29Gilmartin27Odelusi12Kpekawa