Chesterfield 3–1 Bristol Rovers: Result & Stats

Chesterfield

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bristol Rovers

A. Dobra 88'

K. McFadzean 84'

T. Naylor 41'

I. Hutchinson 68'

8/16/2025

League Two · Round 3SMH Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Chesterfield38%

×Draw26%

Bristol Rovers36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChesterfieldExpected goals in this matchBristol Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.35

Chesterfield

1.40

Bristol Rovers

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

1.57

creates per match

1.35

1.34

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Chesterfield

1.57

Bristol Rovers

1.35

allows per match

Chesterfield

1.34

Bristol Rovers

1.23

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Chesterfield-0.21scores less

Bristol Rovers-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chesterfield ↓

Bristol Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Chesterfield or draw

64%

Chesterfield or Bristol Rovers

74%

Draw or Bristol Rovers

62%

Winning margin

Chesterfield wins by 2+

18%

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Chesterfield 1+ goals

75%

Chesterfield 2+ goals

41%

Chesterfield 3+ goals

17%

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

74%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

39%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Chesterfield (draw refunded)

52%

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chesterfield at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.34 · 11 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.23 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chesterfield attack 1.57 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.40

Bristol Rovers attack 1.35 + Chesterfield defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chesterfield scores more

38%

level

26%

Bristol Rovers scores more

36%

Chesterfield at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chesterfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

K. McFadzean

Chesterfield · D

8.9

Match Events

15'

Kyle McFadzean

39'

Joel Senior

41'

T. Naylor↳ D. Duffy

46'

M. Southam-Hales← E. Harrison

46'

R. Sotiriou← K. Lopata

51'

Tom Naylor

58'

Vontae Daley-Campbell

58'

Jack Sparkes

61'

I. Hutchinson← J. McEachran

64'

R. Darcy← D. Duffy

68'

I. Hutchinson

70'

F. Cavegn← P. Omochere

72'

76'

80'

83'

83'

83'

L. Mandeville← V. Daley-Campbell

83'

W. Grigg← L. Bonis

84'

K. McFadzean↳ A. Lewis

88'

A. Dobra↳ L. Mandeville

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChesterfieldBristol

Overview

70%Possession30%

20Total Shots7

4Corners4

9Fouls11

Shots

20Total Shots7

10On Target3

6Off Target2

4Blocked2

13Inside Box5

7Outside Box2

Passing

70%Possession30%

535Total Passes222

457Accurate Passes131

85%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

9Fouls11

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

5Offsides2