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Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chesterfield
Chesterfield
J. Marquis 69', 50'
7/29/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bristol Rovers40%
×Draw23%
Chesterfield37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol Rovers
1.73
Chesterfield
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Bristol Rovers
1.80
Chesterfield
1.67

allows per match

Bristol Rovers
1.60
Chesterfield
1.67

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par
Chesterfield+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Chesterfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw
63%
Bristol Rovers or Chesterfield
77%
Draw or Chesterfield
60%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
21%
Chesterfield wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
82%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
52%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
25%
Chesterfield 1+ goals
81%
Chesterfield 2+ goals
49%
Chesterfield 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
52%
Chesterfield (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Chesterfield away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.80 + Chesterfield defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Chesterfield attack 1.67 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more
40%
level
23%
Chesterfield scores more
37%

Bristol Rovers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'
J. Marquis
69'
J. Marquis

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Bristol Rovers 2–0 Chesterfield

Bristol Rovers beat Chesterfield 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 29, 2023.

Goals: J. Marquis (50', 69').

The match was played at Memorial Stadium in Bristol, Gloucestershire.