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Chertanovo U20 vs Akademiya Konoplev U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Chertanovo U20
Chertanovo U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Akademiya Konoplev U20
Akademiya Konoplev U20
8/30/2024Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Championship Round - 2Arena Chertanovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Chertanovo U2050%
×Draw21%
Akademiya Konoplev U2028%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chertanovo U20
2.08
Akademiya Konoplev U20
1.52

Chertanovo U20 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 76 away

creates per match

Chertanovo U20
1.79
Akademiya Konoplev U20
1.36

allows per match

Chertanovo U20
1.68
Akademiya Konoplev U20
2.37

finishing

Chertanovo U20+0.00on par
Akademiya Konoplev U20+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo U20 ↓

Akademiya Konoplev U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Chertanovo U20 or draw
72%
Chertanovo U20 or Akademiya Konoplev U20
79%
Draw or Akademiya Konoplev U20
50%

Winning margin

Chertanovo U20 wins by 2+
29%
Akademiya Konoplev U20 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chertanovo U20 1+ goals
87%
Chertanovo U20 2+ goals
61%
Chertanovo U20 3+ goals
34%
Akademiya Konoplev U20 1+ goals
78%
Akademiya Konoplev U20 2+ goals
45%
Akademiya Konoplev U20 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo U20 (draw refunded)
64%
Akademiya Konoplev U20 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo U20 at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.68 · 73 matches

Akademiya Konoplev U20 away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.37 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo U20 attack 1.79 + Akademiya Konoplev U20 defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.08

Akademiya Konoplev U20 attack 1.36 + Chertanovo U20 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chertanovo U20 scores more
50%
level
21%
Akademiya Konoplev U20 scores more
28%

Chertanovo U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chertanovo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Chertanovo U20 1–1 Akademiya Konoplev U20

Chertanovo U20 and Akademiya Konoplev U20 drew 1-1 in Youth Championship on August 30, 2024.

The match was played at Arena Chertanovo in Moskva.