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Akademiya Konoplev U20 vs Chertanovo U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Akademiya Konoplev U20
Akademiya Konoplev U20
FT
3 – 2
Chertanovo U20
Chertanovo U20
5/27/2021Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Lower Table Round - 10Stadion Akademii im. Yuriya Konopleva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Akademiya Konoplev U2038%
×Draw22%
Chertanovo U2040%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akademiya Konoplev U20
1.71
Chertanovo U20
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 73 away

creates per match

Akademiya Konoplev U20
1.38
Chertanovo U20
1.53

allows per match

Akademiya Konoplev U20
2.01
Chertanovo U20
2.05

finishing

Akademiya Konoplev U20+0.00on par
Chertanovo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademiya Konoplev U20 ↓

Chertanovo U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Akademiya Konoplev U20 or draw
60%
Akademiya Konoplev U20 or Chertanovo U20
78%
Draw or Chertanovo U20
62%

Winning margin

Akademiya Konoplev U20 wins by 2+
19%
Chertanovo U20 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Akademiya Konoplev U20 1+ goals
82%
Akademiya Konoplev U20 2+ goals
51%
Akademiya Konoplev U20 3+ goals
24%
Chertanovo U20 1+ goals
83%
Chertanovo U20 2+ goals
53%
Chertanovo U20 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Akademiya Konoplev U20 (draw refunded)
48%
Chertanovo U20 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademiya Konoplev U20 at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.01 · 72 matches

Chertanovo U20 away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.05 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademiya Konoplev U20 attack 1.38 + Chertanovo U20 defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.71

Chertanovo U20 attack 1.53 + Akademiya Konoplev U20 defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Akademiya Konoplev U20 scores more
38%
level
22%
Chertanovo U20 scores more
40%

Chertanovo U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chertanovo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Akademiya Konoplev U20 3–2 Chertanovo U20

Akademiya Konoplev U20 beat Chertanovo U20 3-2 in Youth Championship on May 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii im. Yuriya Konopleva in Primorskiy.