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Chertanovo Moscow vs Baltika BFU — Second League - Group 2 2020

Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Baltika BFU
Baltika BFU
6/10/2023Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 12Arena Chertanovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Chertanovo Moscow43%
×Draw26%
Baltika BFU32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chertanovo Moscow
1.48
Baltika BFU
1.24

Chertanovo Moscow creates 19% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 53 away

creates per match

Chertanovo Moscow
1.55
Baltika BFU
1.25

allows per match

Chertanovo Moscow
1.23
Baltika BFU
1.42

finishing

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par
Baltika BFU+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo Moscow ↓

Baltika BFU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Chertanovo Moscow or draw
68%
Chertanovo Moscow or Baltika BFU
74%
Draw or Baltika BFU
57%

Winning margin

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
21%
Baltika BFU wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
77%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
43%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
19%
Baltika BFU 1+ goals
71%
Baltika BFU 2+ goals
35%
Baltika BFU 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
57%
Baltika BFU (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo Moscow at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.23 · 65 matches

Baltika BFU away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.55 + Baltika BFU defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.48

Baltika BFU attack 1.25 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Chertanovo Moscow scores more
43%
level
26%
Baltika BFU scores more
32%

Chertanovo Moscow at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Chertanovo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chertanovo Moscow vs Baltika BFU

Baltika BFU beat Chertanovo Moscow 1-0 in Second League - Group 2 on June 10, 2023.

The match was played at Arena Chertanovo in Moskva.