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Baltika BFU vs Chertanovo Moscow — Second League - Group 2 2020

Baltika BFU
Baltika BFU
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
4/2/2023Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 1Stadion Baltika

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Baltika BFU37%
×Draw26%
Chertanovo Moscow37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baltika BFU
1.37
Chertanovo Moscow
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 66 away

creates per match

Baltika BFU
1.22
Chertanovo Moscow
1.65

allows per match

Baltika BFU
1.11
Chertanovo Moscow
1.52

finishing

Baltika BFU+0.00on par
Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika BFU ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Baltika BFU or draw
63%
Baltika BFU or Chertanovo Moscow
74%
Draw or Chertanovo Moscow
63%

Winning margin

Baltika BFU wins by 2+
17%
Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Baltika BFU 1+ goals
75%
Baltika BFU 2+ goals
40%
Baltika BFU 3+ goals
16%
Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
75%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
40%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Baltika BFU (draw refunded)
50%
Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika BFU at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.11 · 54 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.52 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika BFU attack 1.22 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.37

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.65 + Baltika BFU defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Baltika BFU scores more
37%
level
26%
Chertanovo Moscow scores more
37%

Baltika BFU at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Baltika BFU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baltika BFU vs Chertanovo Moscow

Chertanovo Moscow beat Baltika BFU 4-1 in Second League - Group 2 on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Baltika in Kaliningrad.