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Chertanovo Moscow vs Alaniya II — First League 2018

Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Alaniya II
Alaniya II
8/30/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 6Stadion Salyut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Chertanovo Moscow31%
×Draw27%
Alaniya II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chertanovo Moscow
1.13
Alaniya II
1.34

Alaniya II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 21 away

creates per match

Chertanovo Moscow
1.36
Alaniya II
1.38

allows per match

Chertanovo Moscow
1.30
Alaniya II
0.90

finishing

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par
Alaniya II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo Moscow ↓

Alaniya II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Chertanovo Moscow or draw
59%
Chertanovo Moscow or Alaniya II
73%
Draw or Alaniya II
69%

Winning margin

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
13%
Alaniya II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
68%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
31%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
11%
Alaniya II 1+ goals
74%
Alaniya II 2+ goals
39%
Alaniya II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
43%
Alaniya II (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo Moscow at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

Alaniya II away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.36 + Alaniya II defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.13

Alaniya II attack 1.38 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Chertanovo Moscow scores more
31%
level
27%
Alaniya II scores more
41%

Alaniya II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Alaniya II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chertanovo Moscow vs Alaniya II

Alaniya II beat Chertanovo Moscow 3-0 in First League on August 30, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Salyut in Moscow.