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Alaniya II vs Chertanovo Moscow — First League 2018

Alaniya II
Alaniya II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
12/5/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 26Respublikanskiy stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Alaniya II55%
×Draw23%
Chertanovo Moscow23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alaniya II
1.84
Chertanovo Moscow
1.10

Alaniya II creates 67% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 54 away

creates per match

Alaniya II
2.14
Chertanovo Moscow
1.20

allows per match

Alaniya II
1.00
Chertanovo Moscow
1.54

finishing

Alaniya II+0.00on par
Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya II ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Alaniya II or draw
77%
Alaniya II or Chertanovo Moscow
77%
Draw or Chertanovo Moscow
45%

Winning margin

Alaniya II wins by 2+
31%
Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Alaniya II 1+ goals
84%
Alaniya II 2+ goals
55%
Alaniya II 3+ goals
28%
Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
67%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
30%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Alaniya II (draw refunded)
71%
Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya II at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.00 · 21 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.54 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya II attack 2.14 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.84

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.20 + Alaniya II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Alaniya II scores more
55%
level
23%
Chertanovo Moscow scores more
23%

Alaniya II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Alaniya II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Alaniya II 3–1 Chertanovo Moscow

Alaniya II beat Chertanovo Moscow 3-1 in First League on December 5, 2020.

The match was played at Respublikanskiy stadion Spartak in Vladikavkaz.