Chertanovo Moscow 0–1 Akron: Result & Stats

Chertanovo Moscow

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Akron

3/28/2021

First League · Round 33Stadion Salyut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Chertanovo Moscow39%

×Draw28%

Akron33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chertanovo MoscowExpected goals in this matchAkron

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.14

Chertanovo Moscow

1.27

Akron

1.14

Chertanovo Moscow creates 11% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 74 away

1.36

creates per match

0.97

1.30

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Chertanovo Moscow

1.36

Akron

0.97

allows per match

Chertanovo Moscow

1.30

Akron

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Akron+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo Moscow ↓

Akron →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Chertanovo Moscow or draw

67%

Chertanovo Moscow or Akron

72%

Draw or Akron

61%

Winning margin

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+

17%

Akron wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals

72%

Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals

36%

Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals

14%

Akron 1+ goals

68%

Akron 2+ goals

32%

Akron 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)

54%

Akron (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo Moscow at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

Akron away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.18 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.36 + Akron defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.27

Akron attack 0.97 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chertanovo Moscow scores more

39%

level

28%

Akron scores more

33%

Chertanovo Moscow at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chertanovo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff