Akron 0–1 Chertanovo Moscow: Result & Stats | Cup

Akron

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Chertanovo Moscow

G. Levin 6'

8/26/2020

Cup · 3rd RoundStadion Kristall Zhigulyovsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Akron52%

×Draw24%

Chertanovo Moscow24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AkronExpected goals in this matchChertanovo Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.05

Akron

1.68

Chertanovo Moscow

1.05

Akron creates 60% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

1.86

creates per match

1.17

0.93

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Akron

1.86

Chertanovo Moscow

1.17

allows per match

Akron

0.93

Chertanovo Moscow

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akron+0.00on par

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akron ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Akron or draw

76%

Akron or Chertanovo Moscow

76%

Draw or Chertanovo Moscow

48%

Winning margin

Akron wins by 2+

28%

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Akron 1+ goals

81%

Akron 2+ goals

50%

Akron 3+ goals

24%

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals

65%

Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals

28%

Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Akron (draw refunded)

69%

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akron at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akron attack 1.86 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.68

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.17 + Akron defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Akron scores more

52%

level

24%

Chertanovo Moscow scores more

24%

Akron at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Akron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

G. Levin

45+1'

A. Titov← G. Gogrichiani

46'

A. Gazdanov← A. Potapov

46'

S. Vakhteev← N. Ivannikov

46'

A. Nikitenkov← A. Efremov

61'

P. Gorbunov← V. Drukovskiy

62'

S. Pinyaev← A. Melekhov

64'

V. Bartasevich← K. Lyakhov

69'

N. Suleymanov← D. Molodnyakov

70'

A. Delkin← V. Pjanchenko

85'

N. Pershin← I. Kamyshev

Akron

Chertanovo

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Emeljanov

45+1'▲A. Titov←▼G. Gogrichiani

46'▲A. Gazdanov←▼A. Potapov

46'▲S. Vakhteev←▼N. Ivannikov

61'▲P. Gorbunov←▼V. Drukovskiy

70'▲A. Delkin←▼V. Pjanchenko

Akron substitutes

TitovGazdanovVakhteevGorbunovDelkin

Manager: A. Dmitriev

46'▲A. Nikitenkov←▼A. Efremov

62'▲S. Pinyaev←▼A. Melekhov

64'▲V. Bartasevich←▼K. Lyakhov

69'▲N. Suleymanov←▼D. Molodnyakov

85'▲N. Pershin←▼I. Kamyshev

Chertanovo Moscow substitutes

NikitenkovPinyaevBartasevichSuleymanovPershin

Cup: Akron 0–1 Chertanovo Moscow

Chertanovo Moscow beat Akron 1-0 in Cup on August 26, 2020.

Goals: G. Levin (6').

The match was played at Stadion Kristall Zhigulyovsk in Zhigulyovsk.

Akron vs Chertanovo Moscow — Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Cup: Akron 0–1 Chertanovo Moscow