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Cherno more II vs Benkovski Isperih — Third League - Northeast 2018

Cherno more II
Cherno more II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Benkovski Isperih
Benkovski Isperih
11/6/2025Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Cherno more II50%
×Draw23%
Benkovski Isperih28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cherno more II
1.83
Benkovski Isperih
1.31

Cherno more II creates 40% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 41 away

creates per match

Cherno more II
1.86
Benkovski Isperih
1.51

allows per match

Cherno more II
1.12
Benkovski Isperih
1.80

finishing

Cherno more II+0.00on par
Benkovski Isperih+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cherno more II ↓

Benkovski Isperih →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Cherno more II or draw
72%
Cherno more II or Benkovski Isperih
77%
Draw or Benkovski Isperih
50%

Winning margin

Cherno more II wins by 2+
27%
Benkovski Isperih wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cherno more II 1+ goals
84%
Cherno more II 2+ goals
54%
Cherno more II 3+ goals
28%
Benkovski Isperih 1+ goals
73%
Benkovski Isperih 2+ goals
38%
Benkovski Isperih 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cherno more II (draw refunded)
64%
Benkovski Isperih (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cherno more II at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.12 · 58 matches

Benkovski Isperih away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.80 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cherno more II attack 1.86 + Benkovski Isperih defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.83

Benkovski Isperih attack 1.51 + Cherno more II defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cherno more II scores more
50%
level
23%
Benkovski Isperih scores more
28%

Cherno more II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cherno more II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cherno more II vs Benkovski Isperih

Cherno more II and Benkovski Isperih drew 1-1 in Third League - Northeast on November 6, 2025.