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Benkovski Isperih vs Cherno more II — Third League - Northeast 2018

Benkovski Isperih
Benkovski Isperih
FT
0 – 1
Cherno more II
Cherno more II
3/23/2024Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 20Gradski Stadion Isperih

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Benkovski Isperih40%
×Draw23%
Cherno more II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benkovski Isperih
1.65
Cherno more II
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 58 away

creates per match

Benkovski Isperih
2.27
Cherno more II
1.88

allows per match

Benkovski Isperih
1.23
Cherno more II
1.03

finishing

Benkovski Isperih+0.00on par
Cherno more II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benkovski Isperih ↓

Cherno more II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Benkovski Isperih or draw
64%
Benkovski Isperih or Cherno more II
77%
Draw or Cherno more II
60%

Winning margin

Benkovski Isperih wins by 2+
20%
Cherno more II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Benkovski Isperih 1+ goals
81%
Benkovski Isperih 2+ goals
49%
Benkovski Isperih 3+ goals
23%
Cherno more II 1+ goals
79%
Cherno more II 2+ goals
46%
Cherno more II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Benkovski Isperih (draw refunded)
53%
Cherno more II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benkovski Isperih at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Cherno more II away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.03 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benkovski Isperih attack 2.27 + Cherno more II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.65

Cherno more II attack 1.88 + Benkovski Isperih defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Benkovski Isperih scores more
40%
level
23%
Cherno more II scores more
36%

Benkovski Isperih at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Benkovski Isperih will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Benkovski Isperih 0–1 Cherno more II

Cherno more II beat Benkovski Isperih 1-0 in Third League - Northeast on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion Isperih in Isperih.