Chernihiv 0–0 AFSK Kyiv: Result & Stats

Chernihiv

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

AFSK Kyiv

8/22/2021

Druha Liga - Group A · Group A - 5Chernihiv Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Chernihiv59%

×Draw24%

AFSK Kyiv16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChernihivExpected goals in this matchAFSK Kyiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.72

Chernihiv

1.64

AFSK Kyiv

0.72

Chernihiv creates 128% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 12 away

1.35

creates per match

0.33

1.10

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Chernihiv

1.35

AFSK Kyiv

0.33

allows per match

Chernihiv

1.10

AFSK Kyiv

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chernihiv+0.00on par

AFSK Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernihiv ↓

AFSK Kyiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Chernihiv or draw

84%

Chernihiv or AFSK Kyiv

76%

Draw or AFSK Kyiv

41%

Winning margin

Chernihiv wins by 2+

33%

AFSK Kyiv wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Chernihiv 1+ goals

81%

Chernihiv 2+ goals

49%

Chernihiv 3+ goals

23%

AFSK Kyiv 1+ goals

51%

AFSK Kyiv 2+ goals

16%

AFSK Kyiv 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Chernihiv (draw refunded)

79%

AFSK Kyiv (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernihiv at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

AFSK Kyiv away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernihiv attack 1.35 + AFSK Kyiv defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.64

AFSK Kyiv attack 0.33 + Chernihiv defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Chernihiv scores more

59%

level

24%

AFSK Kyiv scores more

16%

Chernihiv at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Chernihiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff