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AFSK Kyiv vs Chernihiv — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

AFSK Kyiv
AFSK Kyiv
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Chernihiv
Chernihiv
11/28/2021Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 20Stadion Dinaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

AFSK Kyiv20%
×Draw26%
Chernihiv54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFSK Kyiv
0.81
Chernihiv
1.52

Chernihiv creates 88% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 31 away

creates per match

AFSK Kyiv
0.57
Chernihiv
0.90

allows per match

AFSK Kyiv
2.14
Chernihiv
1.06

finishing

AFSK Kyiv+0.00on par
Chernihiv+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFSK Kyiv ↓

Chernihiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

AFSK Kyiv or draw
46%
AFSK Kyiv or Chernihiv
74%
Draw or Chernihiv
80%

Winning margin

AFSK Kyiv wins by 2+
6%
Chernihiv wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

AFSK Kyiv 1+ goals
56%
AFSK Kyiv 2+ goals
19%
AFSK Kyiv 3+ goals
5%
Chernihiv 1+ goals
78%
Chernihiv 2+ goals
45%
Chernihiv 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

AFSK Kyiv (draw refunded)
27%
Chernihiv (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFSK Kyiv at home — creates 0.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Chernihiv away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.06 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFSK Kyiv attack 0.57 + Chernihiv defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.81

Chernihiv attack 0.90 + AFSK Kyiv defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

AFSK Kyiv scores more
20%
level
26%
Chernihiv scores more
54%

Chernihiv at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Chernihiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group A: AFSK Kyiv 1–3 Chernihiv

Chernihiv beat AFSK Kyiv 3-1 in Druha Liga - Group A on November 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Dinaz in Demidov.