Cheongju 2–1 FC Anyang: Result & Stats | K League 2

Cheongju

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FC Anyang

8/30/2023

K League 2 · Round 29Cheongju Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Cheongju29%

×Draw27%

FC Anyang44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheongjuExpected goals in this matchFC Anyang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.40

Cheongju

1.09

FC Anyang

1.40

FC Anyang creates 28% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 125 away

0.80

creates per match

1.34

1.45

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Cheongju

0.80

FC Anyang

1.34

allows per match

Cheongju

1.45

FC Anyang

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cheongju+0.00on par

FC Anyang+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheongju ↓

FC Anyang →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cheongju or draw

56%

Cheongju or FC Anyang

73%

Draw or FC Anyang

71%

Winning margin

Cheongju wins by 2+

11%

FC Anyang wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Cheongju 1+ goals

66%

Cheongju 2+ goals

30%

Cheongju 3+ goals

10%

FC Anyang 1+ goals

75%

FC Anyang 2+ goals

41%

FC Anyang 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Cheongju (draw refunded)

40%

FC Anyang (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheongju at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.45 · 64 matches

FC Anyang away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.38 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheongju attack 0.80 + FC Anyang defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.09

FC Anyang attack 1.34 + Cheongju defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cheongju scores more

29%

level

27%

FC Anyang scores more

44%

FC Anyang at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Anyang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff