Chênois 2–0 Azzurri 90: Result & Stats

Chênois

FT

2 – 0

Azzurri 90

8/29/2020

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Stade des Trois-Chênes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Chênois61%

×Draw21%

Azzurri 9018%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChênoisExpected goals in this matchAzzurri 90

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.00

Chênois

2.05

Azzurri 90

1.00

Chênois creates 105% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 13 away

1.87

creates per match

0.69

1.31

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Chênois

1.87

Azzurri 90

0.69

allows per match

Chênois

1.31

Azzurri 90

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chênois+0.00on par

Azzurri 90+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chênois ↓

Azzurri 90 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Chênois or draw

82%

Chênois or Azzurri 90

79%

Draw or Azzurri 90

39%

Winning margin

Chênois wins by 2+

38%

Azzurri 90 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Chênois 1+ goals

87%

Chênois 2+ goals

61%

Chênois 3+ goals

33%

Azzurri 90 1+ goals

63%

Azzurri 90 2+ goals

26%

Azzurri 90 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Chênois (draw refunded)

78%

Azzurri 90 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chênois at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.31 · 86 matches

Azzurri 90 away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chênois attack 1.87 + Azzurri 90 defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.05

Azzurri 90 attack 0.69 + Chênois defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Chênois scores more

61%

level

21%

Azzurri 90 scores more

18%

Chênois at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Chênois will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff