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Azzurri 90 vs Chênois — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Azzurri 90
Azzurri 90
CANC
16:00
Chênois
Chênois
3/13/20211. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Centre sportif de Chavannes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Azzurri 9027%
×Draw22%
Chênois51%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azzurri 90
1.34
Chênois
1.93

Chênois creates 44% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 86 away

creates per match

Azzurri 90
1.08
Chênois
1.55

allows per match

Azzurri 90
2.31
Chênois
1.60

finishing

Azzurri 90+0.00on par
Chênois+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azzurri 90 ↓

Chênois →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Azzurri 90 or draw
49%
Azzurri 90 or Chênois
78%
Draw or Chênois
73%

Winning margin

Azzurri 90 wins by 2+
11%
Chênois wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Azzurri 90 1+ goals
74%
Azzurri 90 2+ goals
39%
Azzurri 90 3+ goals
15%
Chênois 1+ goals
85%
Chênois 2+ goals
57%
Chênois 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Azzurri 90 (draw refunded)
34%
Chênois (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azzurri 90 at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

Chênois away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.60 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azzurri 90 attack 1.08 + Chênois defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.34

Chênois attack 1.55 + Azzurri 90 defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Azzurri 90 scores more
27%
level
22%
Chênois scores more
51%

Chênois at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Chênois will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azzurri 90 face Chênois (1. Liga Classic - Group 1)

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 returns with Azzurri 90 hosting Chênois. Match starts March 13, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Azzurri 90 host Chênois at Centre sportif de Chavannes.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.