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Chennaiyin vs Abahani — AFC Cup 2018

Chennaiyin
Chennaiyin
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Abahani
Abahani
4/30/2019AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 3The Arena by TransStadia (Ahmedabad)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Chennaiyin58%
×Draw30%
Abahani12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chennaiyin
1.25
Abahani
0.40

Chennaiyin creates 213% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

Chennaiyin
1.00
Abahani
0.80

allows per match

Chennaiyin
0.00
Abahani
1.50

finishing

Chennaiyin+0.00on par
Abahani+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

76%No
  • No76
  • Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chennaiyin ↓

Abahani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–024%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (24%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Chennaiyin or draw
88%
Chennaiyin or Abahani
70%
Draw or Abahani
42%

Winning margin

Chennaiyin wins by 2+
28%
Abahani wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Chennaiyin 1+ goals
71%
Chennaiyin 2+ goals
36%
Chennaiyin 3+ goals
13%
Abahani 1+ goals
33%
Abahani 2+ goals
6%
Abahani 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Chennaiyin (draw refunded)
83%
Abahani (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chennaiyin at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.00 · 4 matches

Abahani away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chennaiyin attack 1.00 + Abahani defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Abahani attack 0.80 + Chennaiyin defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Chennaiyin scores more
58%
level
30%
Abahani scores more
12%

Chennaiyin at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Chennaiyin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chennaiyin vs Abahani

Chennaiyin beat Abahani 1-0 in AFC Cup on April 30, 2019.

The match was played at The Arena by TransStadia (Ahmedabad).