Abahani 3–2 Chennaiyin: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Abahani

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Chennaiyin

5/15/2019

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 4Bangabandhu National Stadium (Dhaka)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Abahani42%

×Draw23%

Chennaiyin35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AbahaniExpected goals in this matchChennaiyin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.64

Abahani

1.80

Chennaiyin

1.64

Abahani creates 10% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

2.11

creates per match

1.50

1.78

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Abahani

2.11

Chennaiyin

1.50

allows per match

Abahani

1.78

Chennaiyin

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Abahani+0.00on par

Chennaiyin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abahani ↓

Chennaiyin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Abahani or draw

65%

Abahani or Chennaiyin

77%

Draw or Chennaiyin

58%

Winning margin

Abahani wins by 2+

22%

Chennaiyin wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Abahani 1+ goals

83%

Abahani 2+ goals

54%

Abahani 3+ goals

27%

Chennaiyin 1+ goals

81%

Chennaiyin 2+ goals

49%

Chennaiyin 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Abahani (draw refunded)

54%

Chennaiyin (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abahani at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Chennaiyin away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abahani attack 2.11 + Chennaiyin defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.80

Chennaiyin attack 1.50 + Abahani defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Abahani scores more

42%

level

23%

Chennaiyin scores more

35%

Abahani at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Abahani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff