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Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu — Super League 2026

Chengdu Better City
Chengdu Better City
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Sichuan Jiuniu
Sichuan Jiuniu
Liao Rongxiang 79'
Wellington Silva 63', 20'
H. Hu 45'
Felipe Silva 31'
A. Ademi 5'
3/6/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 1Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Chengdu Better City64%
×Draw20%
Sichuan Jiuniu16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chengdu Better City
2.15
Sichuan Jiuniu
0.96

Chengdu Better City creates 124% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 23 away

creates per match

Chengdu Better City
2.27
Sichuan Jiuniu
1.00

allows per match

Chengdu Better City
0.91
Sichuan Jiuniu
2.02

finishing

Chengdu Better City-0.10scores less
Sichuan Jiuniu-0.39scores less

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chengdu Better City ↓

Sichuan Jiuniu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Chengdu Better City or draw
84%
Chengdu Better City or Sichuan Jiuniu
80%
Draw or Sichuan Jiuniu
36%

Winning margin

Chengdu Better City wins by 2+
41%
Sichuan Jiuniu wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Chengdu Better City 1+ goals
88%
Chengdu Better City 2+ goals
63%
Chengdu Better City 3+ goals
36%
Sichuan Jiuniu 1+ goals
62%
Sichuan Jiuniu 2+ goals
25%
Sichuan Jiuniu 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)
80%
Sichuan Jiuniu (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chengdu Better City at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.91 · 29 matches

Sichuan Jiuniu away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.02 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chengdu Better City attack 2.27 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.15

Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.00 + Chengdu Better City defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Chengdu Better City scores more
64%
level
20%
Sichuan Jiuniu scores more
16%

Chengdu Better City at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
Wellington SilvaChengdu Better CityChengdu Better City · M
9.3

Match Events

5'
A. Ademi↳ Ghojaehmet Shahzat
17'
Zhipeng JiangCard upgrade
18'
Zhipeng Jiang
20'
Wellington Silva↳ Felipe Silva
23'
Z. Xuan← Ghojaehmet Shahzat
31'
Felipe Silva
45'
H. Hu↳ Wang Dongsheng
46'
E. Kartsev← A. Ademi
63'
Wellington Silva↳ Wang Dongsheng
69'
He Yiran← Wang Dongsheng
70'
Yang Yiming← Nan Song
70'
D. Owusu-Sekyere← Yu Rui
75'
Ming Yang Yang
76'
Liao Lisheng← Yang Ming-Yang
76'
Liao Rongxiang← Wellington Silva
79'
Liao Rongxiang↳ Romulo
82'
A. C. Jojo← H. Hu
82'
Abduweli Behram← Felipe Silva
86'
Deabeas Owusu-SekyerePenalty cancelled
88'
Xia Dalong← Wesley Moraes

Possession

79%Chengdu

Shots

29Chengdu

Pass accuracy

61%Chengdu

Statistics

ChengduSichuan
Overview
79%Possession21%
29Total Shots6
4.72Expected Goals (xG)0.81
14Corners4
7Fouls6
Shots
29Total Shots6
8On Target3
14Off Target3
7Blocked0
22Inside Box4
7Outside Box2
Passing
79%Possession21%
645Total Passes183
576Accurate Passes107
89%Pass Accuracy58%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
7Fouls6
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards1

Match Recap: Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu

Chengdu Better City beat Sichuan Jiuniu 5-1 in Super League on March 6, 2026.

Goals: A. Ademi (5'), Wellington Silva (20', 63'), Felipe Silva (31'), H. Hu (45'), Liao Rongxiang (79').

Chengdu Better City controlled possession (79%) and registered 29 shots to 6.

The match was played at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park in Chengdu.