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Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu — Super League 2026

Chengdu Better City
Chengdu Better City
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sichuan Jiuniu
Sichuan Jiuniu
T. Chow 83' (pen)
P. Delgado 75'
Romulo 62'
Yan Dinghao 16'
Wei Shihao 9'
6/25/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 15Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Chengdu Better City64%
×Draw20%
Sichuan Jiuniu16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chengdu Better City
2.15
Sichuan Jiuniu
0.96

Chengdu Better City creates 124% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 23 away

creates per match

Chengdu Better City
2.27
Sichuan Jiuniu
1.00

allows per match

Chengdu Better City
0.91
Sichuan Jiuniu
2.02

finishing

Chengdu Better City-0.10scores less
Sichuan Jiuniu-0.39scores less

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chengdu Better City ↓

Sichuan Jiuniu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Chengdu Better City or draw
84%
Chengdu Better City or Sichuan Jiuniu
80%
Draw or Sichuan Jiuniu
36%

Winning margin

Chengdu Better City wins by 2+
41%
Sichuan Jiuniu wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Chengdu Better City 1+ goals
88%
Chengdu Better City 2+ goals
63%
Chengdu Better City 3+ goals
36%
Sichuan Jiuniu 1+ goals
62%
Sichuan Jiuniu 2+ goals
25%
Sichuan Jiuniu 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)
80%
Sichuan Jiuniu (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chengdu Better City at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.91 · 29 matches

Sichuan Jiuniu away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.02 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chengdu Better City attack 2.27 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.15

Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.00 + Chengdu Better City defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Chengdu Better City scores more
64%
level
20%
Sichuan Jiuniu scores more
16%

Chengdu Better City at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
RomuloChengdu Better CityChengdu Better City · F
8.9

Match Events

9'
Wei Shihao↳ Romulo
16'
Yan Dinghao↳ Wei Shihao
59'
Qiao Wang
62'
Romulo
63'
E. Kartsev← Zhang Yudong
63'
M. Orr← Tiago Leonco
68'
Zhou Dadi← E. Garcia
70'
Wang Dongsheng← Gan Chao
70'
Liao Rongxiang← Wei Shihao
70'
P. Delgado← Felipe Silva
75'
P. Delgado↳ Yan Dinghao
81'
Pedro DelgadoPenalty confirmed
81'
Yang Shuai← T. Letschert
83'
T. ChowPenalty
85'
Muzepper Murahmetjan← Yan Dinghao

Possession

58%Chengdu

Shots

17Chengdu

Pass accuracy

50%Chengdu

Statistics

ChengduSichuan
Overview
58%Possession42%
17Total Shots4
4.47Expected Goals (xG)0.29
8Corners2
18Fouls14
Shots
17Total Shots4
9On Target1
5Off Target3
3Blocked0
15Inside Box2
2Outside Box2
Passing
58%Possession42%
538Total Passes393
469Accurate Passes346
87%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
18Fouls14
0Yellow Cards1
5Offsides1

Match Recap: Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu

Chengdu Better City beat Sichuan Jiuniu 5-0 in Super League on June 25, 2025.

Goals: Wei Shihao (9'), Yan Dinghao (16'), Romulo (62'), P. Delgado (75'), T. Chow (83' pen).

Chengdu Better City controlled possession (58%) and registered 17 shots to 4.

The match was played at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park in Chengdu.