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Chengdu Better City vs Shenzhen Ruby FC — Super League 2018

Chengdu Better City
Chengdu Better City
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Shenzhen Ruby FC
10/23/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 28Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Chengdu Better City66%
×Draw19%
Shenzhen Ruby FC15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chengdu Better City
2.17
Shenzhen Ruby FC
0.91

Chengdu Better City creates 138% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 67 away

creates per match

Chengdu Better City
2.10
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.03

allows per match

Chengdu Better City
0.78
Shenzhen Ruby FC
2.25

finishing

Chengdu Better City+0.00on par
Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chengdu Better City ↓

Shenzhen Ruby FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Chengdu Better City or draw
85%
Chengdu Better City or Shenzhen Ruby FC
81%
Draw or Shenzhen Ruby FC
34%

Winning margin

Chengdu Better City wins by 2+
42%
Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Chengdu Better City 1+ goals
89%
Chengdu Better City 2+ goals
64%
Chengdu Better City 3+ goals
36%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals
60%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals
23%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)
82%
Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chengdu Better City at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.78 · 72 matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chengdu Better City attack 2.10 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.17

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.03 + Chengdu Better City defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Chengdu Better City scores more
66%
level
19%
Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more
15%

Chengdu Better City at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Chengdu Better City 4–0 Shenzhen Ruby FC

Chengdu Better City beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 4-0 in Super League on October 23, 2023.

The match was played at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park in Chengdu.