Chengdu Better City 2–2 Shenzhen Ruby FC

Chengdu Better City

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Shenzhen Ruby FC

Liu Tao 78'

Hu Ruibao 14'

Lim Chai-Min 59'

Hu Ruibao 35' (OG)

6/26/2022

Super League · Round 6Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Chengdu Better City66%

×Draw19%

Shenzhen Ruby FC15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chengdu Better CityExpected goals in this matchShenzhen Ruby FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.91

Chengdu Better City

2.17

Shenzhen Ruby FC

0.91

Chengdu Better City creates 138% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 67 away

2.10

creates per match

1.03

0.78

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Chengdu Better City

2.10

Shenzhen Ruby FC

1.03

allows per match

Chengdu Better City

0.78

Shenzhen Ruby FC

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chengdu Better City+0.00on par

Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chengdu Better City ↓

Shenzhen Ruby FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Chengdu Better City or draw

85%

Chengdu Better City or Shenzhen Ruby FC

81%

Draw or Shenzhen Ruby FC

34%

Winning margin

Chengdu Better City wins by 2+

42%

Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Chengdu Better City 1+ goals

89%

Chengdu Better City 2+ goals

64%

Chengdu Better City 3+ goals

36%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals

60%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals

23%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)

82%

Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chengdu Better City at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.78 · 72 matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chengdu Better City attack 2.10 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.17

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.03 + Chengdu Better City defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Chengdu Better City scores more

66%

level

19%

Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more

15%

Chengdu Better City at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Kim Min-Woo

Chengdu Better City · M

7.9

Match Events

14'

Hu Ruibao↳ Kim Min-Woo

28'

Haolun Mi

35'

Hu RuibaoOwn goal

38'

Yuanyi Li

44'

Tim Chow

56'

R. Alessandrini← Du Yuezheng

59'

Lim Chai-Min↳ Dai Wai-Tsun

69'

Xu Yue← Zhang Yuan II

71'

Gan Rui← Wu Guichao

71'

Mutellip Iminqari← Hu Hetao

71'

Feng Zhuoyi← Gan Chao

72'

78'

90+3'

90+10'

90+2'

Jiang Zhipeng← Mi Haolun

90+2'

Gao Lin← Dai Wai-Tsun

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChengduShenzhen

Overview

62%Possession38%

17Total Shots10

6Corners4

17Fouls19

Shots

17Total Shots10

6On Target2

5Off Target6

6Blocked2

14Inside Box4

3Outside Box6

Passing

62%Possession38%

459Total Passes283

392Accurate Passes222

85%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls19

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3