Chengdu Better City 4–0 Hangzhou Greentown

Chengdu Better City

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Hangzhou Greentown

Abduweli Behram 90'

Wei Shihao 39'

Felipe Silva 35'

Wellington Silva 17'

4/25/2026

Super League · Round 8Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Chengdu Better City55%

×Draw22%

Hangzhou Greentown23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chengdu Better CityExpected goals in this matchHangzhou Greentown

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.17

Chengdu Better City

1.93

Hangzhou Greentown

1.17

Chengdu Better City creates 65% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 25 away

2.27

creates per match

1.43

0.91

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Chengdu Better City

2.27

Hangzhou Greentown

1.43

allows per match

Chengdu Better City

0.91

Hangzhou Greentown

1.59

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

Chengdu Better City-0.10scores less

Hangzhou Greentown-0.19scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chengdu Better City ↓

Hangzhou Greentown →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Chengdu Better City or draw

77%

Chengdu Better City or Hangzhou Greentown

78%

Draw or Hangzhou Greentown

45%

Winning margin

Chengdu Better City wins by 2+

32%

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Chengdu Better City 1+ goals

85%

Chengdu Better City 2+ goals

57%

Chengdu Better City 3+ goals

30%

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals

69%

Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals

33%

Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)

71%

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chengdu Better City at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.91 · 29 matches

Hangzhou Greentown away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.59 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chengdu Better City attack 2.27 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.93

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.43 + Chengdu Better City defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Chengdu Better City scores more

55%

level

22%

Hangzhou Greentown scores more

23%

Chengdu Better City at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Wellington Silva

Chengdu Better City · M

8.9

Match Events

17'

Wellington Silva

19'

Jiaqi Zhang

32'

Marko Tolić

35'

Felipe Silva↳ Wellington Silva

39'

Wei Shihao↳ He Yiran

46'

A. N'Doumbou← Zhang Jiaqi

48'

Egor Sorokin

50'

Wang Chang

51'

Y. Wang← Gao Di

51'

A. Zhang← Wang Yang

64'

Tao Qianglong← Park Jin-Seob

69'

Y. Li← Han Pengfei

69'

Gan Chao← Matheus Jussa

69'

Abduweli Behram← Wei Shihao

74'

Wang Ziming← Felipe Silva

79'

A. Abdusalam← S. Guarirapa

81'

A. C. Jojo← H. Hu

83'

Wang Yudong

88'

Chao Gan

88'

Chao GanCard upgrade

90'

Abduweli Behram↳ Wellington Silva

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChengduHangzhou

Overview

58%Possession42%

16Total Shots12

2.30Expected Goals (xG)0.75

2Corners3

11Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots12

4On Target3

7Off Target6

5Blocked3

9Inside Box7

7Outside Box5

Passing

58%Possession42%

509Total Passes363

429Accurate Passes291

84%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls15

1Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1