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Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown — Super League 2026

Chengdu Better City
Chengdu Better City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hangzhou Greentown
Hangzhou Greentown
Wei Shihao 55'
Yang Ming-Yang 32'
J. E. Kouassi 90' (pen)
5/5/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 11Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Chengdu Better City55%
×Draw22%
Hangzhou Greentown23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chengdu Better City
1.93
Hangzhou Greentown
1.17

Chengdu Better City creates 65% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 25 away

creates per match

Chengdu Better City
2.27
Hangzhou Greentown
1.43

allows per match

Chengdu Better City
0.91
Hangzhou Greentown
1.59

finishing

Chengdu Better City-0.10scores less
Hangzhou Greentown-0.19scores less

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chengdu Better City ↓

Hangzhou Greentown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Chengdu Better City or draw
77%
Chengdu Better City or Hangzhou Greentown
78%
Draw or Hangzhou Greentown
45%

Winning margin

Chengdu Better City wins by 2+
32%
Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chengdu Better City 1+ goals
85%
Chengdu Better City 2+ goals
57%
Chengdu Better City 3+ goals
30%
Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals
69%
Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals
33%
Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)
71%
Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chengdu Better City at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.91 · 29 matches

Hangzhou Greentown away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.59 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chengdu Better City attack 2.27 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.93

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.43 + Chengdu Better City defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Chengdu Better City scores more
55%
level
22%
Hangzhou Greentown scores more
23%

Chengdu Better City at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33
Zhao BoHangzhou GreentownHangzhou Greentown · G
8.0

Match Events

32'
Yang Ming-Yang
45+1'
Wang Yudong
52'
Yang Li
55'
Wei Shihao↳ H. Hu
68'
Tong Lei← Wang Shiqin
68'
D. Owusu-Sekyere← A. N'Doumbou
76'
J. E. Kouassi← Y. Wang
80'
Liu Haofan
82'
Yan Dinghao← Yang Ming-Yang
84'
Gan Chao← Romulo
87'
Tao Qianglong← F. Andrijasevic
90+5'
Jean Evrard KouassiPenalty confirmed
90+3'
Wang Dongsheng← Y. Gurfinkel
90+3'
P. Delgado← Wei Shihao
90+2'
Yang Shuai← Y. Li
90'
J. E. KouassiPenalty

Possession

54%Chengdu

Shots

19Chengdu

Pass accuracy

50%Chengdu

Statistics

ChengduHangzhou
Overview
54%Possession46%
19Total Shots3
2.10Expected Goals (xG)0.88
9Corners1
11Fouls11
Shots
19Total Shots3
10On Target1
7Off Target1
2Blocked1
10Inside Box2
9Outside Box1
Passing
54%Possession46%
579Total Passes504
509Accurate Passes436
88%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
0Saves7
Discipline
11Fouls11
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown

Chengdu Better City beat Hangzhou Greentown 2-1 in Super League on May 5, 2025.

Goals: Yang Ming-Yang (32'), Wei Shihao (55'), J. E. Kouassi (90' pen).

Chengdu Better City controlled possession (54%) and registered 19 shots to 3.

The match was played at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park in Chengdu.