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Chengdu Better City vs Beijing Renhe — League One 2018

Chengdu Better City
Chengdu Better City
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Beijing Renhe
Beijing Renhe
9/12/2020League OneLeague One · Round 1Shuangliu Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Chengdu Better City58%
×Draw24%
Beijing Renhe18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chengdu Better City
1.70
Beijing Renhe
0.83

Chengdu Better City creates 105% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 9 away

creates per match

Chengdu Better City
1.96
Beijing Renhe
0.78

allows per match

Chengdu Better City
0.88
Beijing Renhe
1.44

finishing

Chengdu Better City+0.00on par
Beijing Renhe+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chengdu Better City ↓

Beijing Renhe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Chengdu Better City or draw
82%
Chengdu Better City or Beijing Renhe
76%
Draw or Beijing Renhe
42%

Winning margin

Chengdu Better City wins by 2+
32%
Beijing Renhe wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Chengdu Better City 1+ goals
82%
Chengdu Better City 2+ goals
51%
Chengdu Better City 3+ goals
24%
Beijing Renhe 1+ goals
56%
Beijing Renhe 2+ goals
20%
Beijing Renhe 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)
76%
Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chengdu Better City at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.88 · 25 matches

Beijing Renhe away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chengdu Better City attack 1.96 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.70

Beijing Renhe attack 0.78 + Chengdu Better City defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Chengdu Better City scores more
58%
level
24%
Beijing Renhe scores more
18%

Chengdu Better City at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Chengdu Better City 3–2 Beijing Renhe

Chengdu Better City beat Beijing Renhe 3-2 in League One on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at Shuangliu Sports Centre in Chengdu.