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Beijing Renhe vs Chengdu Better City — League One 2018

Beijing Renhe
Beijing Renhe
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Chengdu Better City
Chengdu Better City
9/30/2020League OneLeague One · Round 6Shuangliu Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Beijing Renhe26%
×Draw22%
Chengdu Better City52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Renhe
1.35
Chengdu Better City
1.96

Chengdu Better City creates 45% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 24 away

creates per match

Beijing Renhe
1.88
Chengdu Better City
2.17

allows per match

Beijing Renhe
1.75
Chengdu Better City
0.83

finishing

Beijing Renhe+0.00on par
Chengdu Better City+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Renhe ↓

Chengdu Better City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Beijing Renhe or draw
48%
Beijing Renhe or Chengdu Better City
78%
Draw or Chengdu Better City
74%

Winning margin

Beijing Renhe wins by 2+
11%
Chengdu Better City wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Beijing Renhe 1+ goals
74%
Beijing Renhe 2+ goals
39%
Beijing Renhe 3+ goals
15%
Chengdu Better City 1+ goals
86%
Chengdu Better City 2+ goals
58%
Chengdu Better City 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)
34%
Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Renhe at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Chengdu Better City away — creates 2.17, concedes 0.83 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Renhe attack 1.88 + Chengdu Better City defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.35

Chengdu Better City attack 2.17 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Beijing Renhe scores more
26%
level
22%
Chengdu Better City scores more
52%

Chengdu Better City at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Beijing Renhe 3–2 Chengdu Better City

Beijing Renhe beat Chengdu Better City 3-2 in League One on September 30, 2020.

The match was played at Shuangliu Sports Centre in Chengdu.