Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chemnitzer FC U19 vs Erzgebirge Aue U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Chemnitzer FC U19
Chemnitzer FC U19
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Erzgebirge Aue U19
Erzgebirge Aue U19
P. Rathmann 90'
L. Klose 57'
L. Schimkus 75', 45'
M. Kindel 4'
8/30/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 5Stadion im Sportforum Chemnitz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Chemnitzer FC U1940%
×Draw22%
Erzgebirge Aue U1938%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chemnitzer FC U19
1.83
Erzgebirge Aue U19
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 26 away

creates per match

Chemnitzer FC U19
1.43
Erzgebirge Aue U19
1.42

allows per match

Chemnitzer FC U19
2.17
Erzgebirge Aue U19
2.23

finishing

Chemnitzer FC U19+0.00on par
Erzgebirge Aue U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemnitzer FC U19 ↓

Erzgebirge Aue U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Chemnitzer FC U19 or draw
62%
Chemnitzer FC U19 or Erzgebirge Aue U19
78%
Draw or Erzgebirge Aue U19
60%

Winning margin

Chemnitzer FC U19 wins by 2+
21%
Erzgebirge Aue U19 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Chemnitzer FC U19 1+ goals
84%
Chemnitzer FC U19 2+ goals
54%
Chemnitzer FC U19 3+ goals
28%
Erzgebirge Aue U19 1+ goals
83%
Erzgebirge Aue U19 2+ goals
53%
Erzgebirge Aue U19 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Chemnitzer FC U19 (draw refunded)
51%
Erzgebirge Aue U19 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemnitzer FC U19 at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.17 · 54 matches

Erzgebirge Aue U19 away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.23 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemnitzer FC U19 attack 1.43 + Erzgebirge Aue U19 defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.83

Erzgebirge Aue U19 attack 1.42 + Chemnitzer FC U19 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chemnitzer FC U19 scores more
40%
level
22%
Erzgebirge Aue U19 scores more
38%

Chemnitzer FC U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chemnitzer FC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
M. Kindel
45'
L. Schimkus
57'
L. Klose
75'
L. Schimkus
90'
P. Rathmann
Chemnitzer
Erzgebirge
T. Wappler
Manager: T. Wappler
P. Hauck
Manager: P. Hauck

Match Recap: Chemnitzer FC U19 vs Erzgebirge Aue U19

Erzgebirge Aue U19 beat Chemnitzer FC U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on August 30, 2025.

Goals: M. Kindel (4'), L. Schimkus (45', 75'), L. Klose (57'), P. Rathmann (90').

The match was played at Stadion im Sportforum Chemnitz in Chemnitz.