Chemnitzer FC U19 2–4 Erzgebirge Aue U19

Chemnitzer FC U19

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Erzgebirge Aue U19

N. Tänzer 59'

P. Sauer 36'

L. Pohlenz 88'

A. Henkel 63'

L. Schimkus 45+3'

M. Kindel 37'

8/24/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 5Stadion im Sportforum Chemnitz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Chemnitzer FC U1940%

×Draw22%

Erzgebirge Aue U1938%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chemnitzer FC U19Expected goals in this matchErzgebirge Aue U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.78

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.82

Erzgebirge Aue U19

1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 26 away

1.42

creates per match

1.42

2.15

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.42

Erzgebirge Aue U19

1.42

allows per match

Chemnitzer FC U19

2.15

Erzgebirge Aue U19

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chemnitzer FC U19+0.00on par

Erzgebirge Aue U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemnitzer FC U19 ↓

Erzgebirge Aue U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Chemnitzer FC U19 or draw

62%

Chemnitzer FC U19 or Erzgebirge Aue U19

78%

Draw or Erzgebirge Aue U19

60%

Winning margin

Chemnitzer FC U19 wins by 2+

21%

Erzgebirge Aue U19 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Chemnitzer FC U19 1+ goals

84%

Chemnitzer FC U19 2+ goals

54%

Chemnitzer FC U19 3+ goals

27%

Erzgebirge Aue U19 1+ goals

83%

Erzgebirge Aue U19 2+ goals

53%

Erzgebirge Aue U19 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Chemnitzer FC U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Erzgebirge Aue U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemnitzer FC U19 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 2.15 · 55 matches

Erzgebirge Aue U19 away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.23 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemnitzer FC U19 attack 1.42 + Erzgebirge Aue U19 defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.82

Erzgebirge Aue U19 attack 1.42 + Chemnitzer FC U19 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chemnitzer FC U19 scores more

40%

level

22%

Erzgebirge Aue U19 scores more

38%

Chemnitzer FC U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chemnitzer FC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

37'

45+3'

46'

46'

L. Brückner← G. Hempel

46'

M. Lenz← A. Hiecke

56'

G. Tóth← L. Löwelt

56'

T. Taubert← K. Mauersberger

59'

N. Tänzer

60'

E. Emmerich← N. Schmidt

60'

M. Wagner← L. Schimkus

63'

A. Henkel

67'

68'

J. Ullmann← N. Tänzer

68'

L. Pohlenz← Q. Fraulob

80'

J. Landgraf← A. Henkel

80'

N. Hänsel← M. Kindel

88'

L. Pohlenz

Chemnitzer

Erzgebirge

Uhlig

▼

Schmidt

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Henkel

Stacziwa

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Tänzer

Mensah

Künzel

Manager: T. Wappler

46'▲A. Zamora←▼P. Jähn

46'▲L. Brückner←▼G. Hempel

46'▲M. Lenz←▼A. Hiecke

56'▲G. Tóth←▼L. Löwelt

56'▲T. Taubert←▼K. Mauersberger

68'▲J. Ullmann←▼N. Tänzer

Chemnitzer FC U19 substitutes

ZamoraBrücknerLenzTóthTaubertUllmannBoldt

Manager: P. Hauck

60'▲E. Emmerich←▼N. Schmidt

60'▲M. Wagner←▼L. Schimkus

68'▲L. Pohlenz←▼Q. Fraulob

80'▲J. Landgraf←▼A. Henkel

80'▲N. Hänsel←▼M. Kindel

Erzgebirge Aue U19 substitutes

EmmerichWagnerPohlenzLandgrafHänselBlankenburgBräunig

Match Recap: Chemnitzer FC U19 vs Erzgebirge Aue U19

Erzgebirge Aue U19 beat Chemnitzer FC U19 4-2 in U19 Bundesliga on August 24, 2024.

Goals: P. Sauer (36'), M. Kindel (37'), L. Schimkus (45+3'), N. Tänzer (59'), A. Henkel (63'), L. Pohlenz (88').

The match was played at Stadion im Sportforum Chemnitz in Chemnitz.

Chemnitzer FC U19 vs Erzgebirge Aue U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Chemnitzer FC U19 vs Erzgebirge Aue U19