Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chemik Police vs Bałtyk Koszalin — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Chemik Police
Chemik Police
FT
0 – 3
Bałtyk Koszalin
Bałtyk Koszalin
4/10/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 23Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chemik Police23%
×Draw22%
Bałtyk Koszalin55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chemik Police
1.16
Bałtyk Koszalin
1.93

Bałtyk Koszalin creates 66% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Chemik Police
0.76
Bałtyk Koszalin
1.21

allows per match

Chemik Police
2.65
Bałtyk Koszalin
1.56

finishing

Chemik Police+0.00on par
Bałtyk Koszalin+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemik Police ↓

Bałtyk Koszalin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Chemik Police or draw
45%
Chemik Police or Bałtyk Koszalin
78%
Draw or Bałtyk Koszalin
77%

Winning margin

Chemik Police wins by 2+
9%
Bałtyk Koszalin wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Chemik Police 1+ goals
69%
Chemik Police 2+ goals
32%
Chemik Police 3+ goals
11%
Bałtyk Koszalin 1+ goals
85%
Bałtyk Koszalin 2+ goals
57%
Bałtyk Koszalin 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Chemik Police (draw refunded)
29%
Bałtyk Koszalin (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemik Police at home — creates 0.76, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Bałtyk Koszalin away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.56 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemik Police attack 0.76 + Bałtyk Koszalin defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.16

Bałtyk Koszalin attack 1.21 + Chemik Police defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Chemik Police scores more
23%
level
22%
Bałtyk Koszalin scores more
55%

Bałtyk Koszalin at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bałtyk Koszalin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Chemik Police 0–3 Bałtyk Koszalin

Bałtyk Koszalin beat Chemik Police 3-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Police.