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Bałtyk Koszalin vs Chemik Police — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Bałtyk Koszalin
Bałtyk Koszalin
FT
2 – 3
Chemik Police
Chemik Police
3/20/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Stadion ZOS Bałtyk Koszalin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bałtyk Koszalin61%
×Draw19%
Chemik Police20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bałtyk Koszalin
2.41
Chemik Police
1.33

Bałtyk Koszalin creates 81% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Bałtyk Koszalin
1.82
Chemik Police
0.88

allows per match

Bałtyk Koszalin
1.79
Chemik Police
3.00

finishing

Bałtyk Koszalin+0.00on par
Chemik Police+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bałtyk Koszalin ↓

Chemik Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Bałtyk Koszalin or draw
80%
Bałtyk Koszalin or Chemik Police
81%
Draw or Chemik Police
39%

Winning margin

Bałtyk Koszalin wins by 2+
39%
Chemik Police wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bałtyk Koszalin 1+ goals
91%
Bałtyk Koszalin 2+ goals
69%
Bałtyk Koszalin 3+ goals
43%
Chemik Police 1+ goals
74%
Chemik Police 2+ goals
38%
Chemik Police 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bałtyk Koszalin (draw refunded)
75%
Chemik Police (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bałtyk Koszalin at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

Chemik Police away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bałtyk Koszalin attack 1.82 + Chemik Police defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.41

Chemik Police attack 0.88 + Bałtyk Koszalin defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Bałtyk Koszalin scores more
61%
level
19%
Chemik Police scores more
20%

Bałtyk Koszalin at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Bałtyk Koszalin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bałtyk Koszalin vs Chemik Police

Chemik Police beat Bałtyk Koszalin 3-2 in III Liga - Group 2 on March 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion ZOS Bałtyk Koszalin in Koszalin.