Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chelyabinsk vs Volga Ulyanovsk — First League 2024

Chelyabinsk
Chelyabinsk
Preview
15:00
Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
5/22/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 33Central Stadium
Big match
49%
Chelyabinsk
model favours
49%25%25%

Volga Ulyanovsk score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Chelyabinsk49%
×Draw25%
Volga Ulyanovsk25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelyabinsk
1.56
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.04

Chelyabinsk creates 50% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 23 away

creates per match

Chelyabinsk
1.78
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.96

allows per match

Chelyabinsk
1.11
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.35

finishing

Chelyabinsk+0.00on par
Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelyabinsk ↓

Volga Ulyanovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Chelyabinsk or draw
75%
Chelyabinsk or Volga Ulyanovsk
75%
Draw or Volga Ulyanovsk
51%

Winning margin

Chelyabinsk wins by 2+
25%
Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chelyabinsk 1+ goals
79%
Chelyabinsk 2+ goals
46%
Chelyabinsk 3+ goals
21%
Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
65%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
28%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)
66%
Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelyabinsk at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Volga Ulyanovsk away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelyabinsk attack 1.78 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.56

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.96 + Chelyabinsk defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Chelyabinsk scores more
49%
level
25%
Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
25%

Chelyabinsk at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Chelyabinsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 5 meetings averaged just 1.4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Chelyabinsk
WDDL
Ulyanovsk
LWDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chelyabinsk face Volga Ulyanovsk (First League)

First League returns with Chelyabinsk hosting Volga Ulyanovsk. Match starts May 22, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Chelyabinsk host Volga Ulyanovsk at Central Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.