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Chelyabinsk vs Spartak Kostroma — First League 2024

Chelyabinsk
Chelyabinsk
Preview
15:00
Spartak Kostroma
Spartak Kostroma
9/5/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 10Central Stadium
Big match
44%
Chelyabinsk
model favours
44%25%32%

Top-of-the-table clash — Chelyabinsk 3 vs Spartak Kostroma 4

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chelyabinsk44%
×Draw25%
Spartak Kostroma32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelyabinsk
1.59
Spartak Kostroma
1.32

Chelyabinsk creates 20% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

creates per match

Chelyabinsk
1.78
Spartak Kostroma
1.53

allows per match

Chelyabinsk
1.11
Spartak Kostroma
1.41

finishing

Chelyabinsk+0.00on par
Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelyabinsk ↓

Spartak Kostroma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Chelyabinsk or draw
68%
Chelyabinsk or Spartak Kostroma
75%
Draw or Spartak Kostroma
56%

Winning margin

Chelyabinsk wins by 2+
22%
Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chelyabinsk 1+ goals
80%
Chelyabinsk 2+ goals
47%
Chelyabinsk 3+ goals
21%
Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals
73%
Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals
38%
Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)
58%
Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelyabinsk at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Spartak Kostroma away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelyabinsk attack 1.78 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.59

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.53 + Chelyabinsk defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chelyabinsk scores more
44%
level
25%
Spartak Kostroma scores more
32%

Chelyabinsk at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chelyabinsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 5 of the last 6 meetings
  • Their last 6 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Chelyabinsk
WDDL
Kostroma
WLLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chelyabinsk face Spartak Kostroma (First League)

First League returns with Chelyabinsk hosting Spartak Kostroma. Match starts September 5, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Chelyabinsk host Spartak Kostroma at Central Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.