Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cheltenham vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Cheltenham
Cheltenham
Preview
15:00
Walsall
Walsall
3/26/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 37Whaddon Road
Big match
49%
Walsall
model favours
27%24%49%

Cheltenham have won 6 of the last 8 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Cheltenham27%
×Draw24%
Walsall49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheltenham
1.21
Walsall
1.73

Walsall creates 43% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

creates per match

Cheltenham
1.13
Walsall
1.85

allows per match

Cheltenham
1.61
Walsall
1.29

finishing

Cheltenham+0.18scores more
Walsall-0.03on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw
51%
Cheltenham or Walsall
76%
Draw or Walsall
73%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+
11%
Walsall wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals
70%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
34%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
12%
Walsall 1+ goals
82%
Walsall 2+ goals
52%
Walsall 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)
35%
Walsall (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 13 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.29 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.13 + Walsall defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Walsall attack 1.85 + Cheltenham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cheltenham scores more
27%
level
24%
Walsall scores more
49%

Walsall at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Cheltenham
Balanced
Walsall
Direct / counter-attacking
47%Possession44%
65%Pass accuracy64%
10.6Shots12.1
1.08xGBiggest gap1.47
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CheltenhamWalsall

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

6
Cheltenham
1
Draws
1
Walsall
Avg goals: 3.1BTTS: 63%
4–01–02–21–22–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Cheltenham
WLLL
Walsall
LDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Cheltenham host Walsall

March 26, 2027: Cheltenham take on Walsall in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Cheltenham host Walsall at Whaddon Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.