Cheltenham 3–1 Walsall: Result & Stats | League Two

Cheltenham

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Walsall

A. May 71'

C. Thomas 48'

M. Sheaf 18'

E. Adebayo 78'

1/11/2020

League Two · Round 27Jonny-Rocks Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Cheltenham26%

×Draw24%

Walsall50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheltenhamExpected goals in this matchWalsall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.70

Cheltenham

1.17

Walsall

1.70

Walsall creates 45% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.13

creates per match

1.78

1.61

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Cheltenham

1.13

Walsall

1.78

allows per match

Cheltenham

1.61

Walsall

1.20

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Cheltenham+0.18scores more

Walsall-0.09on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Walsall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw

50%

Cheltenham or Walsall

76%

Draw or Walsall

74%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+

10%

Walsall wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals

69%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

33%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

11%

Walsall 1+ goals

82%

Walsall 2+ goals

51%

Walsall 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

35%

Walsall (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 13 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.20 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.13 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Walsall attack 1.78 + Cheltenham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cheltenham scores more

26%

level

24%

Walsall scores more

50%

Walsall at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

C. Thomas

Cheltenham · M

7.6

Match Events

15'

S. Long← R. Broom

18'

46'

48'

51'

52'

57'

64'

G. Lloyd← T. Campbell

71'

A. May↳ G. Lloyd

72'

Alfie May

73'

J. Doyle-Hayes← C. Clements

78'

E. Adebayo↳ C. Lavery

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CheltenhamWalsall

Overview

55%Possession45%

15Total Shots9

2Corners3

16Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots9

5On Target2

6Off Target5

4Blocked2

11Inside Box5

4Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

418Total Passes334

302Accurate Passes223

72%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3