Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cheltenham vs Swindon Town — League Two 2018

Cheltenham
Cheltenham
Preview
15:00
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
3/13/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 35Whaddon Road
Big match
42%
Swindon Town
model favours
33%25%42%

Swindon Town score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Cheltenham33%
×Draw25%
Swindon Town42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheltenham
1.29
Swindon Town
1.48

Swindon Town creates 15% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Cheltenham
1.13
Swindon Town
1.34

allows per match

Cheltenham
1.61
Swindon Town
1.46

finishing

Cheltenham+0.18scores more
Swindon Town-0.01on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw
58%
Cheltenham or Swindon Town
75%
Draw or Swindon Town
67%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+
14%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals
72%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
37%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
14%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
77%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
43%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)
44%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 13 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.46 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.13 + Swindon Town defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.29

Swindon Town attack 1.34 + Cheltenham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cheltenham scores more
33%
level
25%
Swindon Town scores more
42%

Swindon Town at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Swindon Town have scored in 11 games running
  • 73% of Swindon Town’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 3.6 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Cheltenham
Balanced
Swindon Town
Attack-heavy
48%Possession53%
65%Pass accuracy72%
10.5Shots12.6
1.08xGBiggest gap1.50
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CheltenhamSwindon Town

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Cheltenham
2
Draws
2
Swindon Town
Avg goals: 3.6BTTS: 60%
0–21–03–32–32–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Cheltenham
WLLL
Town
LLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Cheltenham host Swindon Town

March 13, 2027: Cheltenham take on Swindon Town in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Cheltenham host Swindon Town at Whaddon Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.