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Cheltenham vs Swindon Town — League Two 2018

Cheltenham
Cheltenham
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
8/24/2019League TwoLeague Two · Round 5Jonny-Rocks Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Cheltenham35%
×Draw25%
Swindon Town39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheltenham
1.34
Swindon Town
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

Cheltenham
1.13
Swindon Town
1.22

allows per match

Cheltenham
1.61
Swindon Town
1.56

finishing

Cheltenham+0.18scores more
Swindon Town+0.07on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw
61%
Cheltenham or Swindon Town
75%
Draw or Swindon Town
65%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+
16%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals
74%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
39%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
15%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
76%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
41%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)
48%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 13 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.56 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.13 + Swindon Town defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.34

Swindon Town attack 1.22 + Cheltenham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cheltenham scores more
35%
level
25%
Swindon Town scores more
39%

Swindon Town at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Cheltenham 2–2 Swindon Town

Cheltenham and Swindon Town drew 2-2 in League Two on August 24, 2019.

The match was played at Jonny-Rocks Stadium in Cheltenham, Gloucestershire.