Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cheltenham vs Shrewsbury — League Two 2018

Cheltenham
Cheltenham
Preview
14:00
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
5/1/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 45Whaddon Road
Big match
37%
Shrewsbury
model favours
35%28%37%

Shrewsbury score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Cheltenham35%
×Draw28%
Shrewsbury37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheltenham
1.15
Shrewsbury
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
0.74

allows per match

Cheltenham
1.61
Shrewsbury
1.17

finishing

Cheltenham+0.18scores more
Shrewsbury-0.05on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Shrewsbury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw
63%
Cheltenham or Shrewsbury
72%
Draw or Shrewsbury
65%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+
14%
Shrewsbury wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals
68%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
32%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
11%
Shrewsbury 1+ goals
69%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
33%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)
49%
Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 13 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.17 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.13 + Shrewsbury defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Shrewsbury attack 0.74 + Cheltenham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cheltenham scores more
35%
level
28%
Shrewsbury scores more
37%

Shrewsbury at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Shrewsbury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Cheltenham have won 6 of the last 8 meetings
  • Both teams score in only 30% of Shrewsbury’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Cheltenham
Balanced
Shrewsbury
Direct / counter-attacking
49%Possession44%
65%Pass accuracy61%
10.9Shots11.6
1.08xGBiggest gap0.91
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CheltenhamShrewsbury

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

6
Cheltenham
0
Draws
2
Shrewsbury
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 38%
2–03–12–00–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Cheltenham
WLLL
Shrewsbury
WWDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Cheltenham host Shrewsbury

May 1, 2027: Cheltenham take on Shrewsbury in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Cheltenham host Shrewsbury at Whaddon Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.