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Cheltenham vs Lincoln — League One 2018

Cheltenham
Cheltenham
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Lincoln
Lincoln
M. Blair 90+5'
A. May 16'
E. Bishop 90+1', 69'
12/11/2021League OneLeague One · Round 22Jonny-Rocks Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Cheltenham35%
×Draw27%
Lincoln38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheltenham
1.21
Lincoln
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 156 away

creates per match

Cheltenham
1.19
Lincoln
1.26

allows per match

Cheltenham
1.32
Lincoln
1.22

finishing

Cheltenham+0.00on par
Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw
62%
Cheltenham or Lincoln
73%
Draw or Lincoln
65%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+
15%
Lincoln wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals
70%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
34%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
12%
Lincoln 1+ goals
72%
Lincoln 2+ goals
37%
Lincoln 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)
47%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.19 + Lincoln defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Lincoln attack 1.26 + Cheltenham defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cheltenham scores more
35%
level
27%
Lincoln scores more
38%

Lincoln at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
E. BishopLincolnLincoln · M
8.3

Match Events

16'
A. May↳ L. Sercombe
36'
L. Freestone← C. Hussey
59'
Sean Long
65'
Liam Bridcutt
65'
D. N'Lundulu← H. Adelakun
69'
Charlie Raglan
69'
E. Bishop↳ C. Maguire
71'
Alfie May
72'
D. Crowley← K. Joseph
75'
Conor McGrandles
79'
L. Sørensen← L. Bridcutt
84'
A. Williams← K. Vassell
90+6'
Matthew Pollock
90+3'
Andy Williams
90+1'
E. Bishop↳ L. Fiorini
90+5'
M. Blair

Possession

39%Cheltenham

Shots

14Cheltenham

Pass accuracy

47%Cheltenham

Statistics

CheltenhamLincoln
Overview
39%Possession61%
14Total Shots17
6Corners8
9Fouls12
Shots
14Total Shots17
7On Target7
1Off Target4
6Blocked6
8Inside Box11
6Outside Box6
Passing
39%Possession61%
280Total Passes441
181Accurate Passes321
65%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
9Fouls12
5Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

League One: Cheltenham 2–2 Lincoln

Cheltenham and Lincoln drew 2-2 in League One on December 11, 2021.

Goals: A. May (16'), E. Bishop (69', 90+1'), M. Blair (90+5').

Lincoln controlled possession (61%) and registered 17 shots to 14.

The match was played at Jonny-Rocks Stadium in Cheltenham, Gloucestershire.