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Cheltenham vs Cambridge United — League Two 2018

Cheltenham
Cheltenham
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cambridge United
Cambridge United
4/6/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 42Whaddon Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Cheltenham41%
×Draw27%
Cambridge United32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheltenham
1.36
Cambridge United
1.17

Cheltenham creates 16% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 90 away

creates per match

Cheltenham
1.51
Cambridge United
1.13

allows per match

Cheltenham
1.20
Cambridge United
1.21

finishing

Cheltenham+0.00on par
Cambridge United+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Cambridge United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw
68%
Cheltenham or Cambridge United
73%
Draw or Cambridge United
59%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+
19%
Cambridge United wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals
74%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
39%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
16%
Cambridge United 1+ goals
69%
Cambridge United 2+ goals
33%
Cambridge United 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)
56%
Cambridge United (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.20 · 112 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.21 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.51 + Cambridge United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.36

Cambridge United attack 1.13 + Cheltenham defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cheltenham scores more
41%
level
27%
Cambridge United scores more
32%

Cheltenham at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cheltenham vs Cambridge United

Cheltenham and Cambridge United drew 1-1 in League Two on April 6, 2026.

The match was played at Whaddon Road in Cheltenham.